Left Behind – The Curious Case of Bernie Sanders and John Kasich

The Wisconsin Primary is over and it was said that THIS was a crucial primary for Senator Bernie Sanders (Democrat) and Governor John Kasich (Republican). Well,  now that it’s over, let’s see where things are for these two.

For the Democrats, Sanders is competing against establishment favorite Hillary Clinton who currently has 1,780 delegates out of the total 2,383 delegates needed to win the nomination. So she needs to snag 603 delegates to seal the deal. Bernie Sanders has 1,099delegates and needs a whopping 1,284 delegates to win.  Those numbers includes super delegates. If you exclude super delegates from the count, then Hillary has 1,297 pledged delegates and Bernie has 1,068. Hillary’s lead is not as impressive, but it’s still a sizeable one.  There is some debate on whether to include or exclude super delegates because they can change their vote at anytime; however, this is only likely to happen if the frontrunner changes. So far, it seems unlikely that Bernie Sanders will overtake Hillary Clinton for the lead. To include or not to include super delegates…THAT is the question! I prefer to include them.

After last night’s primary in Wisconsin, there are exactly 1,977 Democratic delegates left. The first person to reach that total wins the nomination.  There are still many delegates out there so although Sanders may have chance, let’s face it…Hillary is a lot closer to the finish line.  Sanders is indeed on a roll having won 6 out of the last 7 primaries, but is it realistic to believe that he will clinch the Democratic nomination?  He has to win more than a 1000 delegates BEFORE July which would require him to win almost every primary left. The reason Hillary was able to brush off a lost in Wisconsin and move on to the next primary in New York is because: 1) She still has a very comfortable lead and 2) She is the favored candidate in NY where even more delegates are up for grabs. So, in my opinion…Sanders is not going to reach the target number of delegates before Hillary does and therefore will not win the Democratic nomination.

That said, I still enjoy watching a good fight and like that Hillary has to continue to EARN the nomination despite being the establishment’s favorite pick. Also, I believe that Sander’s presence has helped Hillary be a better Hillary because she realizes that she has to address the issues that are important to millennials (in all parties) if she is to win the general election.  If  Sanders were not giving her “a run for her money”, how would she know that issues such as guaranteed family leave, free tuition at public colleges, and student loan interest rate reductions are very important to them (and to generation-Xers too)! Regarding the latter, as someone who is STILL paying on student loans for graduate school and will probably be doing so for a long time (unless I win the elusive Powerball!), I agree that SOMETHING needs to be done to at least lower the interest rates. Heck, I think a student loan bailout should be proposed for those who owe over a specific amount. Okay…that’s another blog by itself and I promise to look into that in the future!  Anyway…back to the topic. To Bernie, I say…stay in there and keep Hillary on her toes!  Below is a hilarious video from SNL regarding Sanders’ influence on Hillary!

On the Republican side of the aisle, Ohio Governor John Kasich continues to hold on to the belief that he can somehow win the nomination if when the Republican has a brokered convention in Cleveland, OH. He believes that all of the Republican delegates will suddenly have an “AHA!” moment and realize that the person they need was right there all along, right under their noses the whole time…him…John Kasich. Angels will sing, doves will fly, and tears will flow as they run gladly into his arms because he will be there…waiting with arms wide open. I could not resist including Creed’s video for that song.

Okay, now let’s look at the number of delegates that Kasich has won so far. In order to win the Republican nomination, a total of 1,237 delegates are needed. Governor John Kasich has won 145 delegates. Yes, you are seeing things correctly. Kasich has less than 10% of the total number of delegates needed to win the nomination. Honestly, I think Kasich is a good candidate because he really does have an impressive record as the governor of Ohio. That state has done very well under his leadership which proves that he knows how to be fiscally conservative and still grow an economy. Unfortunately though, it seems that the establishment just don’t like him. They don’t  like Trump either, but Trump has a large number of idol-worshipping fans followers who support him. The media just started talking about him more now that there are only three Republican candidate. I admit that I just learned how to correctly pronounce his name a few weeks ago (it’s pronounced Kay-sick). Kasich really never stood a chance between Trump “The Entertainer” and Cruz “Tea Party Hero”. To add insult to injury, Trump and Cruz don’t even include him in their “fight club”. It is only recent that Trump mentioned Kasich’s name in a speech saying that his continued presence was hurting him (Trump) more than Cruz. FINALLY…Kasich was able to join the fight…at least for a little while. So, does Kasich have a shot at winning the Republican nomination even at a contested convention?  In my opinion, he does not. Again, largely because the establishment just hasn’t warmed up to him. If they were going to somehow coalesce and nominate him at the convention, you would expect to see some support for him now. Of course not everyone will agree with me on this and there is a small amount of evidence that suggests that Kasich may stand a chance at winning a contested convention. What do you think?

Again, it’s unfortunate because I agree with Kasich that he would do well in a general election against Hillary Clinton. Running for president is similar to going on a job interview. You can have all the skills and knowledge needed for the job, but after all is said and done…it just comes down to whether they like you. In my opinion, Kasich should resign with dignity but not now. He should resign soon though. He is continuing to lose badly in states where he should have done better (i.e. Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois). I just don’t think he should risk being humiliated at the Republican convention which is being hosted in his home state of Ohio. I can only imagine how he would feel if the delegates overwhelmingly vote for someone else (Ted Cruz) and he comes in a distant third…as usual. How could he NOT be bitter about that. Forget about being a gracious host, I would tell everyone to get the hell out and go home!  This all remains to be seen though and this blogger will definitely be watching!

Thanks for “listening” to me whine. Hopefully my whining has made you think. If so, tell your friends/family/colleagues that you heard it through the Political Great Whine!

 

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2 Comments Add yours

  1. politisoul says:

    This is a great post! I like how you cover both sides and I agree about Kasich. I believe he’s only hanging on to ensure the GOP Convention is contested. It’s “The Apprentice” for politics. In fact, at the Convention they should have all 3 Contestants (aka Candidates) sit on a stage before Trump’s family, dim the lights and then bring back all the failed GOP Candidates and have them give their opinions on each one before letting Trump decide who should be hired (considering he talks out both sides of his neck, pretending to be 2 Donald Trumps shouldn’t be that hard).

    In terms of the Dems, Bernie is letting his surrogates attack Hillary, while he projects the “I’m above the personal attacks fray”. And now he’s putting in super hard pitches in his speeches for Super Delegates to shift his way. The same ones he didn’t want Clinton to be getting before the Dem Convention.

    It’s funny how he and Trump only want to abide by rules when they are in their favor, but let those same rules not be and suddenly they want to shift and bend them. It’s ultimately reeks of Executive and Political Privilege of both a career businessman and a career politician. But, I must say it all makes for good political theater, so I look forward to seeing how it all plays out and seeing Kasich make his special appearance – I’m sure it will include lots of confetti.

    Like

    1. cflewis1 says:

      Thanks for your comments! Lol@ the Republican Apprentice idea! I agree that Bernie hides behind his political ops…but they all do. The super delegates don’t seem to be “feeling the Bern” so I can’t imagine them shifting their support…but you never know! It really is good political theater!

      Like

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